Archive for category: Market Reports News

Some things never change, Irrespective of market conditions, the January Florida United Numismatists (FUN) Show ushers in a sense of optimism. Vendors start arriving at the beginning of the week, eager to trade coins out of inventory and replace them with new items to offer their customers. Essentially, the dealer community tries to predict their customers’ reactions, generally wagering that they too will react to the coin market with the same newfound sense of optimism. A new year equates to new reasons for hope.

Last year saw a stabilization of the coin market. The COVID/post-COVID meteoric rise in prices came to a halt, and some leading indicators (such as Morgan/Peace Dollars) even began to pull-back. This was a necessary component to a rising market. At some point, prices need to stabilize. Consequently, we were relieved to see a slow-down of the fast and furious price increases. We prefer to see slow and steady. Fast and furious is prone to crash and burn. Slow and steady has a much better chance to sustain. So, how did this scenario translate to the FUN Show?

One constant is that FUN runs a first-rate convention. They are one of the largest and best run coin organizations in the world, and their show is a constant reflection of the club’s viability. This year was no exception. FUN filled the Orange County Convention Center hall with wall-to-wall vendors, In total, over 800 tables were populated by approximately 1000 dealers from destinations around the world. Public admission was equally well represented, with the hall packed full of customers for the show’s duration.

What differed from last year’s venue was consumer behavior. In general, we did not see the free spending witnessed at the 2021 FUN Show. Collectors seemed more measured and calculated in their approach. Cross-shopping was more evident, as was price sensitivity. This is not to imply that collectors weren’t opening their checkbooks. They were, albeit in a more conscientious manner. We sold coins throughout the week, and there were no complaints in that department. But just as the market has pulled back a bit, so have the collectors willingness to buy today’s coins at yesterday’s prices. The trick to making this FUN Show work, was finding a market equilibrium. Although pricing is still a fluid component of this marketplace, the art of compromise seemed to allow business to flourish throughout the hall. For the dealers stuck on 2021 pricing, this was not a fruitful show. But for those of us resigned to changing with the times, ample business was done. At the end of the week, we had a very healthy FUN Show with solid sales and many fresh new purchases.

In conclusion, we believe that FUN provided us with a snapshot of what’s to come. We believe that 2023 should be a steady, and even prosperous, year for the hobby in general, but conditions will probably be more challenging. As we said earlier, this is not a negative, but rather a necessary stabilization to a fluid numismatic marketplace.

The deck has been stacked against us for some time. Lockdowns, restrictions, and the overall COVID narrative was testing the patience of all but the most ardent believers. Society in general was done. Most people entered this summer as if it were just another normal pre-pandemic summer, albeit with more pent-up cabin fever than ever. Translation for the coin business? This was not going to be a summer where people spent their time indoors with their collections. This was going to be a time where we started traveling again, having outdoor cook-outs,  attending sporting events and concerts….yes, this was going to be the summer when things returned to normal.

Our hobby is both cyclical and seasonal, and the summer is not historically a robust period for the coin business. Many factors promoted a complete turnaround in consumer behavior this summer, especially given the thankful end to the COVID pandemic. But our crystal ball was not projecting a recession with the accompanying collapse of BITCOIN, sluggish financial markets, weak precious metals and record fuel prices. The situation just got more complicated…..at least, potentially. Where the deck was arguably lacking aces at the end of the pandemic, it was now void of all face cards, thanks to the recession. This spelled potential disaster for the coin business and the hobby overall. So knowing the cards were not in our favor, how did we fare? The short answer is, damn well!

Why did the coin market persevere in such adverse circumstances? Obviously, the answer transcends both circumstances and conventional wisdom. At the heart of the coin market is a nucleus of collectors. They did not go away. Their spending habits arguably were altered, but compared to what we normally encounter with a summer slowdown, it was slight, at worst. Is this to imply that coin collectors did not travel or otherwise alter their pandemic lifestyles? The answer would be a resounding NO! We interact with our customers on a daily basis, and it was obvious after talking to both our wholesale customers (dealers), and our retail customers (collectors), that both were mimicking society as a whole. Vacations and overdue trips were being taken, outdoor and social activities were being enjoyed and a resumption of a normal lifestyle appeared to be the order of the day. They simply did not drop collecting as a component to that lifestyle. Rather, numismatics were seemingly integrated and wound into their post-pandemic routines, perhaps one of the few positive outcomes of COVID.

Our regular readers have probably noted that it’s been a while since we have posted a Market Update. This was not by choice but rather necessity. The pandemic altered all of our routines. In retrospect, this was probably the most fluid two year period of our company’s history. Remembering back to all of the initial closures/shutdowns in Spring, 2020, there was a hobby-wide coin shortage. Coming into 2020, we had built up a store inventory of over 25 double-row boxes of certified coins. Less than six months later, we had sold down to under half a dozen boxes. What had started as a concern for restocking the shelves quickly evolved into a plight. With coin shops closed and shows on-hold, the supply chain for rare coins came to a screeching halt. The short version is, we had to get very creative during this period to stay in business. It was obvious that collectors, with more time on their hands, desired new coins, and perhaps more-so than ever. Keeping them supplied proved to be a different matter. Using some in-house ingenuity, we treaded water during COVID, ultimately living to fight another day. Fortunately, as both shops began to reopen and coin shows resumed, this supply problem gradually resolved itself. This was an indirect consequence of COVID, and as we’re only too aware, was not a challenge just  limited to the coin business. The direct consequence was that our office experienced health-related staffing problems, a situation that persisted for almost 6 months. We often allude to time being our most precious commodity. With fewer employees to staff the office, more orders than ever in company history, and additional time spent on the phone/online alternatively sourcing coins, Market Update became a sacrilegious lamb.

Readers of Numismatic News and Coin World may have noted yet another change. Where we used to run large, once-a-month, item-specific advertisements in both publications, we now have gone to more regular ads promoting readers to sign up for our monthly price lists. Why the change? The answer stems from the aforementioned coin shortages, in tandem with the unprecedented, newfound demand. During COVID, and almost without fail, when a reader would call/email to order a specific coin, it had been previously sold. Some of this had to do with the lag time of the publications. On average, the timeline between sending our final ad copy to Numismatic News and/or Coin World, to the time that it took each of them to get the publication in their subscribers’ hands, was 7-10 days. Simply stated, in that window, advertised coins got sold elsewhere. Conversely, our in-house generated price list was able to get an updated inventory in our customers’ hands in just 2-3 business days, thereby increasing their chances that the coins would still be available. We felt promoting the price list component was a more effective use of our advertising dollar. Hence, this strategy replaced the item-specific listings.

As we alluded to at the beginning of this report, this summer has been an enigma. For all intents and purposes, it should have been a complete disaster. Unfavorable economic conditions and a desire to resume a normal routine, pointed to both less time and money to devote to coins. Thankfully, neither was the case. Although the market and corresponding demand have both predictably slowed from their pandemic fervor, the coin market still remains surprisingly healthy. How this translates to the fall is anybody’s guess.

Farmers have an old saying. Make hay when the sun shines. The sun continues to shine on this business and the hobby that we collectively know as numismatics. As long as that continues, The Reeded Edge will remain in the forefront, bringing fresh, new coins to the marketplace, while servicing all of your numismatic needs. We consider ourselves very fortunate to be part of such a great hobby and business; it’s something that we never lose sight of…..Until next time, Happy Collecting!

I enjoy Black Kalamata Olives. They are one of my go-to snack foods. Consequently, every trip to the market starts at the deli counter where I order a pound of the olives. One year ago, these olives were $5/pound. The day before yesterday, the same olives were $10/pound-exactly double what they were 12 short months ago. Let’s take this comparison a step further. Two years ago, the nationwide average price for a gallon of gas was $1.94. Today, it is a staggering $4.21, with a few urban areas topping $6.00! If we were to extend these comparisons back another two years, the differences in price would be more dramatic yet. Inflation has hit the highest levels in over 40 years, and is affecting most of our everyday lives. So, have coin prices gone up proportionally in the overall scheme of things? Let’s take a look.

For the basis of comparison, I will use CDN (Greysheet) wholesale prices from April 20, 2018 (pre-COVID) and compare them to CDN dated April 2022 (It should be noted that CDN is now a monthly publication, where it previously had been a weekly publication). Let’s use Morgan Dollars as our reference group, since they are frequently traded and have traditionally been considered a primary numismatic market indicator. In the 2018 CDN, common-date Morgan Dollars were reported at $115 in MS-65, and $200 in MS-66. Presently, the same coins are reported at $190 in MS-65 and $270 in MS-66. The price increases for MS-65 Morgans in this 4 year window were approximately 65%, and approximately 42% for MS-66 examples. Let’s now make this same comparison on a scarcer date Morgan Dollar, such as an 1879-CC. For this example, I will compare MS-60 and MS-63 prices, as this date gets prohibitively scarce and expensive in higher grades, and is also much less frequently traded. In 2018, the 1879-CC was reported at $4000 in MS-60 and $6800 in MS-63. Today, this same coin clocks in at $5000 in MS-60 and $7250 in MS-63. These represent modest increases of 25% in MS-60 and just over 6.5% in MS-63. In these isolated examples, the aforementioned Morgan Dollars sure look cheap when compared to olives (100% price increase in one year) and gas (117% price increase in 4 years) . Further correlations can be made by comparing the CDN Morgan Dollar pages below of April 2022 and April 20, 2018. Suffice to say, coins still appear to be one of the better deals going, which likely is what’s fueling the current market. The emerging trend with coins, cars, real estate, antiques and collectibles, art and fine wine, just to name a few areas, seems to indicate that people would rather own things than accumulate money. It thus becomes a question of which area presents the best value. My simple example above sure sheds a favorable light on coins, even at today’s higher levels.

Having just returned from The Central States Numismatic Convention in Scahumburg, Illinois, I made some interesting observations. This was one of the largest Central States shows ever, due in part to a well-needed change in the show leadership and direction, in tandem with extremely favorable market conditions. A large contingent of dealers from around the country were present, including all of the most prominent rare coin firms. An abundance of numismatic sharks created a challenging environment for buying coins. The feeling seemed to be, that even at today’s higher levels, the coin market as a whole, was still undervalued. What I witnessed were many dealers attempting to sell coins at tomorrow’s levels. The quandary of selling a coin at x, and then being forced to pay x+y to replace it, seemed to resonate throughout the bourse floor. For the collectors out there still on a market disconnect-news flash; this has become a seller’s market. For many dealers, chiseling, low-balling and even counter-offers are being viewed with disdain. To quote a dealer friend’s response to a collector inquiring about the prospect of any “end-of-the-day blowouts‘, he politely replied, “Sir, that ship has sailed“.

 

 

Well, for anybody wondering if this market is real, you need not guess any further. Trying to buy coins at last week’s Baltimore Coin Show proved taxing. Although there was no lack of availability, asking prices were at the least, optimistic, and at the extreme, downright maniacal. It was if dealers had a crystal ball, and could see auction results from the upcoming Stack’s Fairmont Collection and Rarities Night sales. In retrospect, dealers were not wrong. We were representing several of our advanced collectors in both Stack’s sales, trying to pick up some new additions for their collections. In all instances, we had a carte blanche to figure bids at OUR discretion, knowing that the primary objective was to buy coins. In ALL instances, we figured our bids at well over what anything comparable had sold for in the past. Our litmus test was trying to figure the most that a particular coin could be worth in today’s market, and then adding 20%. it didn’t work. We were not even the underbidder on a single lot, let alone the successful buyer. Most of the material in both sales defied our wildest expectations, making dealer asking prices at Baltimore the previous week look more realistic than we initially thought. The trajectory of this market is frenetic, with no let up in sight. One of our most respected trading partners, who has been a fulltime numismatist for over 30 years (and at the very highest level) proclaimed that he had never seen a market like this. Although, as many of you know, we try not to get too far ahead of ourselves, we must concur with our friend. In this market, if you want to own great coins, you’re going to have to resign yourself to being aggressive. Most coin dealers across the spectrum understand that they are in the driver’s seat; this is a seller’s market. The collector who insists on negotiating price, in many instances, is getting left behind. The operative question is, how much longer will this paradigm sustain. Alluding back to our aforementioned crystal ball, the safe answer is, if only we knew? We make a point of not reminiscing about the past or trying to prognosticate the future. Instead, we elect to deal in the present, and presently, we like what we see!